Doubling Farmers’ Income by 2022
The way forward
About This Presentation
- Doubling the farmers’ income requires improvements in both farm and non-farm income
- This thought-starter is about matters that concern ‘farm income’
Agricultural Lands in India – Then and Now
|Total geographical area (mil.ha||329||329|
|Net sown area (mil.ha)||140||141|
|Gross cultivated area (mil.ha)||165||198|
|Agricultural production ($ bln.)||25||394|
Sources: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare
World Bank Database
- Net sown area remained constant. Gross cropped area increased due to irrigation
- Agricultural production grew by over 14 times (1476%) while population grew twice (100%)
- Our agriculture has diversified into high value products- horticulture, milk, eggs, fish and meat.
Population enters an era of De-growth..!
World Population (mil.)
- Population (world and India) grew by ~200% between 1950 and 2018
- The growth rate drastically declines by 90% between 2018 and 2050
- We have successfully managed the peak growth era (1950-2018)
- India’s population actually decreases after 2050
There is no threat to India’s food security
Drivers of Dietary Demand in 21st Century India
- Higher per capita consumption ( than population growth alone).
Though population is still growing in absolute numbers, its growth rate has sharply slowed down
- Urbanization, increasing income, better living standards and impact of globalization etc. changes the family food habits
- Above all, dietary shift in India is influenced strongly by socio, cultural and religious preferences
Growth has accelerated for dairy products, vegetables, fruits, eggs, veg oils, sugars, fish and meat while it has decelerated for staple food grains
Indian diet has evolved to be “lacto-vegan” and will remain so
Importance of Agriculture to Indian Economy
- The largest private sector and main source of livelihood for majority Indians
- Export earnings ( trade surplus) from agricultural sector helps importing capital goods for the services and industry sector
- Agriculture’s true contribution to the economy extends far beyond its share of GDP (14.5% 2018)
- Growth in agriculture economy accelerates growth in services and industry sectors – in terms of output & input.
The service and industry sectors are engines of economic growth, but the fuel that powers these engines comes from agriculture
That’s why the entire economy catches a cold when agriculture sneezes
Agricultures linkage with other sectors and businesses : Few examples
|Kirana Shops : |
India has over 12 million Kirana shops.
Maximum in the world.
40 million earn their livelihood Retail market size
~$672 bn 70% of this shared by food & grocery
|Textiles industry : |
India is world’s largest cotton producer.
The main raw material for textile industry ($108 bn).
It employs to over 45 million people.
Restaurants, food , snacks & beverage industry:
Agriculture supports and sustains this huge sector.
Millions earn their livelihood
|Transport & Export : |
Agri. commodities are among the largest transported.
India ranks 9th largest in agri. exports in the world.
Millions are engaged in these activities.
|Farm inputs: |
Agricultural sector consumes farm inputs
(seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, farm machinery) worth ~
|Farm Credit : |
Indian agriculture is a major consumer of loans
India’s Declining agri. Exports and Increasing Imports
- Market for Indian agricultural commodities shrink in international and domestic market
- Product substitution occurs at consumers level
- Import dependency increases
- With Industry and Services sector failing to generate more employment, steady fall in consumption/demand of Indian agricultural products could be disastrous for our agricultural economy
Agricultural imports are not bad per se provided our agricultural exports growth outpaces the imports
India’s Top 5 Export / Import Commodities by Value
Top 5 Exports Commodities by Value
|Total of Top 5||19.68||23.08|
|% Share of Top 5||58%||59%|
Top 5 Exports Commodities by Value
|Total of Top 5||19.43||18.27|
|% Share of Top 5||67%||55%|